Historical deal explorer

Browse premium patterns across precedent transactions.

Explore an illustrative transaction universe with fair-premium estimates, actual premiums, model drivers, and Overpay Index classifications.

Transactions

18

Avg actual premium

39%

Avg fair premium

29%

High-risk deals

7

Microsoft Activision Blizzard

$68.7B · Jan. 18, 2022

Gaming / Software
Strategic

Fair 31%

Actual 48%

+17%
82
Likely overpaid

Broadcom VMware

$61.0B · May 26, 2022

Infrastructure Software
Strategic

Fair 24%

Actual 44%

+20%
88
Significant overpay

Elon Musk Twitter

$44.0B · Apr. 25, 2022

Social Media
Individual / Sponsor-like

Fair 14%

Actual 38%

+24%
94
Severe overpay

Adobe Figma

$20.0B · Sept. 15, 2022

Design Software
Strategic

Fair 42%

Actual 67%

+25%
86
Strategic overpay

Amazon MGM

$8.5B · May 26, 2021

Media
Strategic

Fair 29%

Actual 29%

+0%
36
Fair value

Salesforce Slack

$27.7B · Dec. 1, 2020

Collaboration Software
Strategic

Fair 38%

Actual 55%

+17%
79
Premium stretched

IBM Red Hat

$34.0B · Oct. 28, 2018

Open Source Software
Strategic

Fair 41%

Actual 63%

+22%
84
Strategic overpay

AMD Xilinx

$35.0B · Oct. 27, 2020

Semiconductors
Strategic

Fair 28%

Actual 25%

-3%
29
Disciplined premium

Nvidia Mellanox

$6.9B · Mar. 11, 2019

Semiconductors
Strategic

Fair 24%

Actual 14%

-10%
22
Undervalued strategic asset

Oracle Cerner

$28.3B · Dec. 20, 2021

Healthcare IT
Strategic

Fair 22%

Actual 20%

-2%
34
Fair value

Microsoft LinkedIn

$26.2B · June 13, 2016

Professional Network
Strategic

Fair 34%

Actual 50%

+16%
73
Premium justified by scarcity

Disney 21st Century Fox

$71.3B · Dec. 14, 2017

Media
Strategic

Fair 26%

Actual 36%

+10%
61
Moderate overpay

LVMH Tiffany

$15.8B · Nov. 25, 2019

Luxury Retail
Strategic

Fair 32%

Actual 37%

+5%
49
Near fair value

Thermo Fisher PPD

$17.4B · Apr. 15, 2021

Life Sciences Services
Strategic

Fair 23%

Actual 24%

+1%
41
Fair value

Take-Two Zynga

$12.7B · Jan. 10, 2022

Gaming
Strategic

Fair 35%

Actual 64%

+29%
89
Significant overpay

Microsoft Nuance

$19.7B · Apr. 12, 2021

Healthcare AI
Strategic

Fair 21%

Actual 23%

+2%
43
Near fair value

Atlassian Loom

$975M · Oct. 12, 2023

Collaboration Software
Strategic

Fair 30%

Actual 44%

+14%
67
Strategic premium

Cisco Splunk

$28.0B · Sept. 21, 2023

Cybersecurity / Observability
Strategic

Fair 24%

Actual 31%

+7%
58
Moderate premium