Gaming / Software
Microsoft → Activision Blizzard
$68.7B transaction · 2022
Likely overpaid
82OPI
Fair Premium31%
Actual Premium48%
Overpay Delta+17%
Model Confidence87%
Strategic scarcityRegulatory dragContent moatPlatform synergies
Overpay Index dashboard
A 0-100 score for whether the premium looks warranted.
The Overpay Index compares simulated fair premium output with the actual acquisition premium, then weights the spread by strategic fit, target quality, market cycle, competitive dynamics, and integration risk.
Live Premium Monitor
Recent deals · Overpay Index
Premium dispersion
+17.8%
above fair premium
median
Avg OPI
71
Signal
High
Universe
Mock
Microsoft → Activision Blizzard
$68.7B · 48% actual premium
OPI 82
Broadcom → VMware
$61.0B · 44% actual premium
OPI 88
Elon Musk → Twitter
$44.0B · 38% actual premium
OPI 94
Adobe → Figma
$20.0B · 67% actual premium
OPI 86
Deal scores
Infrastructure Software
Broadcom → VMware
$61.0B transaction · 2022
Significant overpay
88OPI
Fair Premium24%
Actual Premium44%
Overpay Delta+20%
Model Confidence91%
Margin expansionFinancing cycleEnterprise lock-inMultiple compression
Social Media
Elon Musk → Twitter
$44.0B transaction · 2022
Severe overpay
94OPI
Fair Premium14%
Actual Premium38%
Overpay Delta+24%
Model Confidence93%
Governance riskMarket reversalMonetization gapCompetitive intensity
Design Software
Adobe → Figma
$20.0B transaction · 2022
Strategic overpay
86OPI
Fair Premium42%
Actual Premium67%
Overpay Delta+25%
Model Confidence84%
Category controlHigh growthAntitrust pressureRevenue multiple
Media
Amazon → MGM
$8.5B transaction · 2021
Fair value
36OPI
Fair Premium29%
Actual Premium29%
Overpay Delta+0%
Model Confidence76%
Content libraryStreaming strategyModerate premiumScale fit
Collaboration Software
Salesforce → Slack
$27.7B transaction · 2020
Premium stretched
79OPI
Fair Premium38%
Actual Premium55%
Overpay Delta+17%
Model Confidence82%
Strategic defenseProduct adjacencyGrowth durabilityIntegration risk