Gaming / Software
Microsoft → Activision Blizzard
$68.7B transaction · 2022
Likely overpaid
82OPI
Fair Premium31%
Actual Premium48%
Overpay Delta+17%
Model Confidence87%
Strategic scarcityRegulatory dragContent moatPlatform synergies
Overpay Index dashboard
A 0-100 score for whether the premium looks warranted.
The Overpay Index compares preview fair-premium output with the actual acquisition premium, then weights the spread by strategic fit, target quality, market cycle, competitive dynamics, and integration risk.
Live Premium Monitor
Recent deals · Overpay Index
Premium dispersion
+17.8%
above fair premium
median
Avg OPI
71
Signal
High
Universe
Preview
Microsoft → Activision Blizzard
$68.7B · 48% actual premium
OPI 82
Broadcom → VMware
$61.0B · 44% actual premium
OPI 88
Elon Musk → Twitter
$44.0B · 38% actual premium
OPI 94
Adobe → Figma
$20.0B · 67% actual premium
OPI 86
Premium Predictor
ImpliedAI Premium Predictor V1
Enter deal characteristics to estimate a fair acquisition premium, compare it against the actual premium, and generate an Overpay Index score.
Live preview model
Factor adjustments
Base Premium+20%
Sector: Software+5%
Buyer Type: Strategic+4%
Deal Size: $10B-$50B+3%
Revenue Growth: High+6%
Strategic Fit: High+5%
Regulatory Risk: Medium-2%
Predicted Fair Premium
41%
Actual Premium
48%
Premium Spread
+7%
Verdict
Likely Overpaid
64OPI
Overpay Index Score
64
Premium comparisonSpread +7%
Fair Premium
41%
Actual Premium
48%
0%60%
Formula: fair premium starts at 20%, adds factor adjustments, then compares actual premium against fair premium. OPI = 50 + spread x 2, capped between 0 and 100.
Deal scores
Infrastructure Software
Broadcom → VMware
$61.0B transaction · 2022
Significant overpay
88OPI
Fair Premium24%
Actual Premium44%
Overpay Delta+20%
Model Confidence91%
Margin expansionFinancing cycleEnterprise lock-inMultiple compression
Social Media
Elon Musk → Twitter
$44.0B transaction · 2022
Severe overpay
94OPI
Fair Premium14%
Actual Premium38%
Overpay Delta+24%
Model Confidence93%
Governance riskMarket reversalMonetization gapCompetitive intensity
Design Software
Adobe → Figma
$20.0B transaction · 2022
Strategic overpay
86OPI
Fair Premium42%
Actual Premium67%
Overpay Delta+25%
Model Confidence84%
Category controlHigh growthAntitrust pressureRevenue multiple
Media
Amazon → MGM
$8.5B transaction · 2021
Fair value
36OPI
Fair Premium29%
Actual Premium29%
Overpay Delta+0%
Model Confidence76%
Content libraryStreaming strategyModerate premiumScale fit
Collaboration Software
Salesforce → Slack
$27.7B transaction · 2020
Premium stretched
79OPI
Fair Premium38%
Actual Premium55%
Overpay Delta+17%
Model Confidence82%
Strategic defenseProduct adjacencyGrowth durabilityIntegration risk
Open Source Software
IBM → Red Hat
$34.0B transaction · 2018
Strategic overpay
84OPI
Fair Premium41%
Actual Premium63%
Overpay Delta+22%
Model Confidence86%
Cloud repositioningOpen-source scarcityRevenue durabilityTransformation urgency
Semiconductors
AMD → Xilinx
$35.0B transaction · 2020
Disciplined premium
29OPI
Fair Premium28%
Actual Premium25%
Overpay Delta-3%
Model Confidence78%
Stock considerationPortfolio expansionData center exposureCycle timing
Semiconductors
Nvidia → Mellanox
$6.9B transaction · 2019
Undervalued strategic asset
22OPI
Fair Premium24%
Actual Premium14%
Overpay Delta-10%
Model Confidence74%
Data center fitNetworking adjacencyReasonable premiumStrategic upside
Healthcare IT
Oracle → Cerner
$28.3B transaction · 2021
Fair value
34OPI
Fair Premium22%
Actual Premium20%
Overpay Delta-2%
Model Confidence77%
Healthcare verticalCloud migrationRecurring revenueExecution complexity
Professional Network
Microsoft → LinkedIn
$26.2B transaction · 2016
Premium justified by scarcity
73OPI
Fair Premium34%
Actual Premium50%
Overpay Delta+16%
Model Confidence80%
Network scarcityEnterprise dataCloud adjacencyLarge premium
Media
Disney → 21st Century Fox
$71.3B transaction · 2017
Moderate overpay
61OPI
Fair Premium26%
Actual Premium36%
Overpay Delta+10%
Model Confidence75%
Content scaleStreaming transitionCompetitive biddingIntegration complexity
Luxury Retail
LVMH → Tiffany
$15.8B transaction · 2019
Near fair value
49OPI
Fair Premium32%
Actual Premium37%
Overpay Delta+5%
Model Confidence72%
Brand scarcityLuxury scaleMargin upsideConsumer cycle
Life Sciences Services
Thermo Fisher → PPD
$17.4B transaction · 2021
Fair value
41OPI
Fair Premium23%
Actual Premium24%
Overpay Delta+1%
Model Confidence73%
CRO demandHealthcare resilienceScale benefitsModerate premium
Gaming
Take-Two → Zynga
$12.7B transaction · 2022
Significant overpay
89OPI
Fair Premium35%
Actual Premium64%
Overpay Delta+29%
Model Confidence83%
Mobile gaming exposureMarket timingGrowth resetSynergy reliance
Healthcare AI
Microsoft → Nuance
$19.7B transaction · 2021
Near fair value
43OPI
Fair Premium21%
Actual Premium23%
Overpay Delta+2%
Model Confidence76%
Healthcare AICloud attachmentEnterprise workflowModerate premium
Collaboration Software
Atlassian → Loom
$975M transaction · 2023
Strategic premium
67OPI
Fair Premium30%
Actual Premium44%
Overpay Delta+14%
Model Confidence69%
Workflow adjacencyAI videoRemote collaborationPrivate-market reset
Cybersecurity / Observability
Cisco → Splunk
$28.0B transaction · 2023
Moderate premium
58OPI
Fair Premium24%
Actual Premium31%
Overpay Delta+7%
Model Confidence79%
Security platformRecurring revenueAI observabilityPortfolio transition